Barela's Not Such a "Young Gun": Heinrich Polling at 55%

From Joe Monahan's Blog: http://www.joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com/

HEINRICH VS. BARELA

Rep. Heinrich

How vulnerable is ABQ Dem Congressman Martin Heinrich in his first race for re-election? Not very, if you believe his latest poll. It shows Heinrich trouncing Republican challengerJon Barela 55% to 38%. The poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner research, which we have found to be pretty straight shooting over the years, says Heinrich's job approval is also at 55%. The survey was taken among "500 likely general election voters" April 28 to May 2. You can read the polling memo here.

This is the first poll of the cycle that we've seen that puts Heinrich over the magic 50% re-elect mark. It comes at an important time. Respected DC political handicappers Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg are now saying Heinrich's district is "lean Democrat" not "likely Democrat." That's an important distinction, especially for fund-raising. But this poll calls into question the claims that Heinrich's seat is in serious play for the GOP.

While the R's argue that Barela will do well with Hispanics in the district, the Heinrich survey shows him beating Barela 68% to 24% with Hispanics. Among Anglos, Heinrich wins over Barela 48% to 44%.

If this poll has it right, Heinrich has lost hardly any traction since he scored a 56% win in 2008 over Republican Darren White to claim the seat held by the R's for 40 years.

A February Public Policy Polling survey had Heinrich beating Barela 45% to 36%.

No incumbent congressman has ever been defeated in the history of the ABQ district. Democrats outnumber R's in the district 197,000 to 133,000. Analysts here say the district has taken on a more liberal hue, demonstrated by the Obama and Heinrich landslides. Also, in 2006, Republican Rep. Heather Wilson, an accomplished campaigner, barely kept the district from swinging to the Dems. Given this backdrop Heinrich polling at 55% is not extraordinary.

Barela's best hope is for a low turnout election in which the Democratic base is unexcited about Heinrich and an extremely sour national mood penetrates the ABQ district. But with no evidence of that yet, the betting money remains heavily on Heinrich.