The Economic Crisis and Populist Revolt at Boiling Point

***This blog post is a result of the work of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research***

SURVEYS FOR DEMOCRACY CORPS AND NPR PUT AMERICA'S POLITICS AT A CRUCIAL MOMENT

With President Obama delivering his State of the Union Address tonight, we wanted to make sure you had our interpretation of this key moment based on a Democracy Corps and Center for American Progress national survey conducted right before the Massachusetts Senate election and a National Public Radio bipartisan poll conducted with Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies right afterwards. We take these developments very seriously, but we also want to offer perspective and set out major steps that can produce a very different future.

The upset in Massachusetts was the culmination of yearlong trends that reached their boiling point even before these voters gave Ted Kennedy's Senate seat to a Republican. Voters are increasingly consumed by unemployment and want their leaders to address that priority, yet the leaders in Washington seem polarized and gridlocked, pushing a health care bill now defined by special deals rather than its benefits and the reforms that voters support.

As you will see, this is reflected in disillusionment with incumbents, Democrats, and the Democratic Congress, even as Republicans remain unreconstructed. There is a populist and conservative revolt against Wall Street and financial elites, Congress and government, centered among independents. Democrats and President Obama are seen as more interested in bailing out Wall Street than helping Main Street. Stir in demoralized Democrats and energized Republicans and you reach a boiling point.

The big question is whether this mood, all too reminiscent of 1994, will be controlling in November. Or will voters see a different kind of politics, priorities and progress over the next nine months?

Before Massachusetts, there was some evidence that key indicators and sentiment had stabilized since November and that, perhaps, the environment is at a low point for Democrats – bad timing for a special election. Despite the bleak mood, there is some evidence in both polls of an uptick in optimism about the economy.

Our analysis of these surveys suggests a number of things that Democrats can do to move America to a different place:

1. Pass health care and explain it anew.

2. Get the spotlight off of Congress.

3. Turn to jobs and focus relentlessly on bringing the economy and small business back.

4. Act on reforming Wall Street.

5. Take visible action to cut spending and reduce the deficit.

6. Get the economic narrative right.

7. Sharply define the Republicans and the real choice in the election.